Eielson AFB, Alaska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

163
FXAK69 PAFG 042303
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
203 PM AKST Sat Jan 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
One more night of very cold temperatures across the Eastern
Interior and Yukon Flats with temperatures dropping into the 30s
to 40s below. Temperatures begin their upward climb Sunday as
southerly flow develops across the state. By Monday temperatures
climb above zero across much of the area south of the Brooks
Range. The pressure gradient tightens through the Bering Strait
Sunday night through Tuesday, resulting in north to northeast
winds gusting to 60 mph on St. Lawrence Island. In the Alaska
Range, southerly winds increase through the passes, especially the
eastern Alaska Range passes, where gusts to 60 mph are possible
Sunday afternoon through early Monday afternoon. After a brief
break Monday night, another round of strong southerly winds
develops through the passes Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Messages...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Not quite as cold tonight across the Interior, but temperatures
  will still drop into the 30 to 40 below range across the Yukon
  Flats and Eastern Interior.

- Temperatures begin to climb Sunday with highs ranging from the
  teens below across the Yukon Flats and Eastern Interior to single
  digits above over the Central Interior. By Monday temperatures soar
  well above zero, to the low 30s in the Alaska Range and teens to
  20s across the Middle Tanana Valley.

- Tanana Valley Jet persists into next week, with gusts of 45 to 55
  mph.

- Gusty southerly gap winds ramp up in the Alaska Range Sunday night
  into Monday afternoon with gusts of 50 to 60 mph in the Eastern
  Alaska Range passes. Winds diminish briefly Monday evening and
  Monday night before ramping up once again Tuesday.

- Snow chances increase for the northern Interior Sunday into
  Tuesday. Highest snow amounts from Arctic Village to near Stevens
  Village where 2 to 3 inches of snow are possible and 3 to 5 inches
  in the eastern Alaska Range south of Trims Camp.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- East to northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph persist through the
  weekend from Utqiagvik east, while near Point Hope northeast winds
  increase to 20 to 30 mph Sunday to near 40 mph with gusts to 55 mph
  by Monday.

- Temperatures slowly increase through early next week. Lows in the
  teens along the coast and near 30 below across the Arctic Plains.

- Snow chances increase Monday from the eastern Beaufort Sea coast to
  the Central Brooks Range.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- Temperatures begin to warm on Sunday, with most locations above
  zero. By Monday, highs climb into the teens from the Seward
  Peninsula south.

- Along the coast, wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph expected from Nome
  south through Monday and 40 to 50 mph on St Lawrence Island,
  increasing to 50 to 60 mph Sunday afternoon.

- A chance of snow returns late Sunday for the Y-K Delta and
  Interior. Monday night, snow becomes likely across the Western
  Interior.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence...
A 550 dam ridge centered over northern Siberia drifts west across
Siberia into next week, while troughing extends from a 499 dam
low over the Canadian Archipelago southwest to a 506 dam low
southwest of the western Aleutians. A 508 dam low develops on the
eastern periphery of the main low this afternoon over near the
western Gulf of Alaska. The new low lifts northwest to be centered
near Cold Bay Sunday afternoon, pushing north into the
southeastern Bering by Tuesday morning. At the same time, another
piece of energy rounding the base of the main low swingS north
into the Gulf of Alaska Monday morning, moving over Kodiak Island
and inland by Tuesday morning. These lows push disturbances over
the Alaska Range, supporting potential southerly chinook flow.

At the surface, a 1044 mb high is centered north of Siberia with
high pressure extending east to Banks Island. The high north of
Siberia weakens to 1038 mb by Sunday afternoon as it moves to east
to 300 NM north of Wrangel Island, weakening through Monday. A
972 mb low is 300 NM southwest of Amchitka and a 971 mb low is 300
NM south of Cold Bay. The low southwest of Amchitka slowly
weakens through Monday as it moves southeast. The second low
weakens to 974 mb as it moves across Cold Bay Sunday afternoon,
continuing north into the southeast Bering at 978 mb by Tuesday
morning. A third low quickly spins up Sunday morning in the north
Pacific moving north to be a 972 mb 275 NM south of Kodiak Sunday
afternoon, weakening as it moves to the Alaska Peninsula Monday
morning. A fourth low follows behind it. A series of fronts
associated with these lows will push north of the Alaska Range and
across the Interior. These fronts increase cloud cover and bring
increasing snow chances. The combination of the high pressure to
the north and low pressure to the south has resulted in a tight
pressure gradient across the state, resulting in gusty east to
northeast winds across northern Alaska and the Bering Sea. The
Tanana Valley Jet continues into next week, while southerly winds
increase in the Alaska Range passes, approaching advisory levels
Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon.

Approaching the new week, models begin to struggle with the
placement, timing, and strength of the lows moving north out of
the Gulf of Alaska. At times there is as much as an 800 mile
separation in low placement between model solutions. The Canadian
is the farthest south and the slowest, with the ECMWF being the
fastest and furthest north, the NAM and GFS are in the middle. The
Canadian has been the outlier the past couple of days and
continues to be so. Have opted to go with a general blend of the
ECMWF/GFS/NAM.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended forecast begins with a mean upper level low extending
from the north Pacific to the Bering and upper level ridging
over western Canada. By Thursday morning an upper level low is
tracking northeast across the Gulf of Alaska pushing the upper
level ridge axis to the southeast. This supports southerly flow
over much of northern Alaska, allowing temperatures to increase
and be above normal, as well as supporting the development of
chinook flow in the Alaska Range. A front moves north across the
Alaska Range Tuesday pushing north across northern Alaska through
Thursday, spreading snow across the West Coast and Interior. There
remains a large spread in model solutions, leading to lower
forecast confidence in this time range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Wind Advisory for AKZ849.
     High Wind Watch for AKZ827.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834.
     Cold Weather Advisory for AKZ837.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801-806-810-811-856-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-803.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ815.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817-851-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ851.
     Gale Warning for PKZ852.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ861.
&&

$$